The developed model is able to predict forest fires for 20 minutes before catching fire.

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2019-09-09 14:40:09

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The developed model is able to predict forest fires for 20 minutes before catching fire.

Forest fires — uncontrollable force, the appearance of which can be predicted

Humanity has pretty well learned to deal with small fires, and even very successfully mastered various methods of dealing with fire. Extinguishing from the air to the technology «taking away» oxygen, depriving the fire of the most important component of combustion and causes it to fade on their own. However, in the face of a raging storm the people are still powerless. And extensive forest fires . But the problem, as you know, it is easier to prevent than to deal with its consequences. And for this, a model was developed that can predict forest fires for 20 minutes before the fire.

How to predict the fire?

According to the newspaper EurikAlert, for a new study are scientists from research lab fire University named for Brigham young. They were able to recognize some of the signs of occurrence of fires and to build on their basis a system for prediction of fires. If you want to be aware of such events — subscribe to our news . There frequently comes a lot of interesting materials.

We worked in the «small scale», which gave us some advantage. If earlier similar studies were conducted in large forest areas, we examined how heat and other conditions that lead to fires, impact on forest flora, — said Professor of the University named after Brigham young, Thomas Fletcher. We want to make the fire more predictable conducting the experiments in a well controlled environment.

Recent forest fires in Siberia were visible even from space

For their experiments Fletcher and his colleagues loaded into a refractory vessel with the function of a thermogravimetric analyzer leaves of 14 species of shrubs and slowly made heat to 800 degrees Celsius. Watching the leaves burn, they classified the rate at which the plant is burned, and chemical substances released as a result of these processes. In addition, the scientists also compared the impact of two sources of heat: convection (modelirovanii fires spread by wind power) and thermal (arising, in fact, due to direct contact with fire).

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The Study showed that the chemical composition of shrubs is of great importance in how quickly they are destroyed before you start to burn. It is important to know because the type of plants growing in forests are well known. And even before the plant started to burn, it begins to secrete certain chemicals. These substances can be easily detected if set in the woods, where the plants of a particular species , «configured» it is on these plants and the emissions of chemical substances.

Now there are models that can predict the development of fires on a few days in advance. But the analysis of data takes about two weeks and requires a lot of computational power. We offer an alternative. Yes, our projections do not so much «sent to the future». We can give answers about how the fire will spread in the next 20 minutes. Our model can help in the question of how to predict their occurrence in the short term.

Now the American researchers checked your details and soon want to repeat the experiments with the use of trees and herbs growing in the woods. It will be able to make their predictions even more accurate.

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