How many people in the world would be infected CoVID-19 if not for the quarantine?

Don't know about you, but some of my friends still deny the seriousness of the situation with the spread CoVID-19. Moreover, I am increasingly beginning to think that people decided to make something like that public festivals – the weather is good outside the window, why not go outside without a mask and other PPE? The answer to the question is obvious – if you do not follow the self-isolation and social distancing, then the number of infected with the novel coronavirus will grow exponentially. As of April 7 the number of deaths from the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 worldwide, above 75 thousand people. However, as terrible as these numbers are, things could be much worse. So, according to the scientists, until the end of April to may die up to 240 000 people. And it is based on the isolation and quarantine measures. But what would it be without them?

the Worst scenario of the pandemic CoVID-19

In fact – and we wrote about it leading epidemiologists have long warned that the world is not to avoid new pandemics of dangerous diseases. So, epidemiologist Larry Brilliant, who helped defeat smallpox, Ebola and other dangerous diseases, in 2006 predicted the truly catastrophic consequences of a pandemic of a new virus disease. Moreover, the concerns of epidemiologists was so serious that to be a threat to the attention of the General public and governments, in 2011 with the assistance of scientists on the screens released film “Contagion”. However, even the star cast was not able to attract attention to the problem. Read more about what this film is and why it's worth a look .

But what would happen if after the detection of the novel coronavirus governments failed to take decisive action? The first global assessment of the impact of coronavirus on March 26 were presented by scientists from Imperial College London. According to the results, in the absence of quarantine and isolation, CoVID-19 became infected would be about only in 2020 – and almost 90% of people on Earth. Given the number of infected, approximately 40 million people would have died. Moreover, it is important to understand that this situation would not have made it, none of the healthcare system in the world.

Carefully follow your health. Underestimate the threat, unfortunately, is impossible.

The Only thing you can do to prevent disasters is to implement strategies aimed at drastic reduction of the rapid growth of new cases of infection. This means that people need to minimize contact and to change their way of life. However, even despite such “draconian” measures, in each country the situation may develop differently, depending on demographics and income levels, the study authors write. This means that in some countries, the pandemic might develop in a different way and in some countries the losses can be devastating. The delay in implementing austerity measures (quarantine, isolation) can endanger millions of lives. Are you still not scared?

a global threat

After Analyzing the severity of the disease and how people interact with each other, scientists have predicted a further development of the pandemic and its impact on the 202 countries. The findings are another indication that you need to take all possible efforts to slow the spread of the disease and to reduce mortality among the population. The analysis showed that the implementation of social distancing to mitigate outbreaks, halved the number of expected deaths.

However, hospitals will still overflowing with patients. That is what is happening in new York, Italy and Spain. As it is very difficult to make accurate predictions, as at the moment we know very little about the new coronavirus. However, according to the assessments of other professionals as the spread of the virus it will have a major impact on countries around the world and will inevitably lead to the deaths of many people.

Staying at home you are saving the lives of others. Don't forget about it.

How to resist the coronavirus right now?

No matter How dispersed scores of professionals, they all agree in one thing – we must act at an early stage, when the number of deaths in the population is still relatively small. Counting deaths from COVID-19 can help officials better understand how widespread the disease is and to determine when to advise residents to limit contact with other people and stay home. If world leaders begin to actively suppress the distribution CoVID-19 since the first identified cases in strne, it will help to save about 30,7 million lives. And delays in the implementation of strategies to prevent the transmission of infection on the contrary will lead to an increase in the number of deaths.

Let's not forget that the new coronavirus is not a seasonal flu, it is much, much more dangerous. Recently, editor in chief Hi-News.ru Renat Grishin , devoted to the denial of the pandemic threat and the manipulation of statistics – you should read it and make it a habit to check the information. No exaggeration – today, it affects not only your life but the lives of other people. Be well.

Temporary assistance infected with the coronavirus in Tsentalnom Park, new York