Why Germany has so few deaths from the coronavirus?

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2020-03-24 19:20:11

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Why Germany has so few deaths from the coronavirus?

If you Wake up every morning in the hope that tomorrow all this will end, you know – you are not alone. The whole world held its breath and waiting for good news. Today, amid the daily reports about the rising number of deaths due to the new coronavirus, every piece of good news – the weight of gold. Perhaps for this reason, journalists drew attention to Germany – at the time of this writing, the country is confirmed by more than 19 thousand cases of infection with the novel coronavirus, and the number of deaths is 68. The level of deaths is 0.36%, which is much lower than in France (2%), Spain (4%) and Italy (8%). Moreover, mortality in Germany is lower than in South Korea (1%), which equals the rest of the country. But what is the reason for this state of Affairs?

the mortality rate from coronavirus:
the Germany: 0,36%;
the France: 2%;
of Spain: 4%;
the Italy: 8%;
the South Korea: 1.1 percent.

Coronavirus in Germany

Today, the mass testing of citizens to apply in South Korea, which managed to achieve amazing results. Moreover, even in Italy – the epicenter – a small town that managed to contain the spread of the disease. Is a commune In the Euganeo, with a population of 3 400 people, located a short distance from Venice. Immediately after the outbreak CoVID-19 in Venice, the authorities At the Euganeo made the decision for mandatory testing of all residents of the city. As reported , according to the test results, coronavirus was infected 90 people. Sending the infected to the quarantine, the disease has been contained.

In Germany, too, spend a lot of tests, but really all it is? As writes the Spanish , the representative of the Ministry of health of Spain, Fernando Simon said that the German government does not have a conclusive explanation of what is happening. However, there are at least three hypotheses.

Hypothesis No. 1: it's only the beginning

It is possible that the impact of the epidemic of coronavirus in Germany will come later. The first outbreak in Europe occurred in Italy, where the events developed very quickly, what was the reason for the high mortality – it's been a week since the first infection to the first victim. This means that the outbreak was active for many weeks, as the coronavirus is required to cause death. Anxiety in Italy made European countries to redouble their efforts to detection.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has gone into quarantine after contact with the infected doctor

However, Germany quickly reacted to the appearance of the first infected. As , Germany is ahead of other countries for two to three weeks. Authorities have conducted large-scale testing, however, the first phase still missed the flash. Researchers believe that testing citizens can explain the reason for such a low mortality rate.

And how do you think the situation with the spread of CoVID-19 in Russia and other countries? Share your answer in the comments and with participants

Hypothesis No. 2: infected a lot of young people

Among the first identified cases of infection in Germany, there were many young people. This is logical – they travel more and often communicate with foreigners. Moreover, the body of young people better cope with the virus, but with age, the number of deaths increases. Thus, the average age of infected in Germany is 47 years, and the proportion of those over 60 years accounted for 20%. These figures are similar to those in South Korea, but very different from performance in Italy, where the average age of those infected – confirmed cases – is 66. With 25% of people in Germany over 65 years.

It is Also possible that on the overall development of the situation is influenced by cultural customs. Everyday contacts between younger and older people differ in all societies. As the University of Bonn (Germany), Italy, China or Japan 20% of young people aged 30 to 49 years still live with their parents, while in Germany this figure is just over 10%.

So at the beginning of the epidemic in Germany, met passengers from other countries

Hypothesis No. 3: since the beginning of the flash was a little more time

According to the third hypothesis, the reason for the low fatality rates in Germany may lie in the fact that since the beginning of the epidemic . This is because death does not occur suddenly – it takes some time. And in many countries the increase in mortality increases over time. This happened in South Korea, where testing is in full swing, but the mortality rate doubled from 0.5% to 1.1% in the period from 1 to March 20. If the outbreak in Germany began later than in Spain or Italy, its mortality rate may increase.

Coronavirus in South Korea

The Experience of South Korea shows that for all cost tests. It is obvious that the best detection reduces the mortality rate, bringing them closer to the real picture: if we consider all cases of infection, including the lungs, the ratio of dead and infected will be lower. Experts in South Korea have conducted more than 5000 tests per million inhabitants, and although the outbreak in the country, ravaging many weeks Korea remains the country with the lowest fatality rates.

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Researchers believe that the low mortality rate in Germany is probably related . Soononly, the mortality rate in Germany is unlikely to approach the performance of Italy and Spain. But if the flash was just gaining momentum, the number of deaths will inevitably increase.

At the time of writing, the case fatality rates in Germany are among the lowest in the world.

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