An outbreak of coronavirus could begin in September, scientists say
Source:In recent news about the mers come in all anxious and contradictory. Perhaps this is a natural consequence of panic that inevitably arises in times of severe shocks such as pandemic CoVID-19. From the very first case of infection with the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, recorded in Wuhan in late 2019, followed a number of shocks. Albeit not immediately, but gradually appears more and more conspiracy theories: some have questioned the existence of the virus, others are convinced its artificial origin and the list goes on. However, a reason to doubt the data still exists. For several weeks the entire world press is discussing the likelihood that the Chinese government may be hiding the real number of deaths during the outbreak. Distrust of official information, China has added a new bill that restricts the publication of research about the origin CоVID-19. Now, all studies must be agreed with the government. Now, as found out by scientists from Cambridge who study the origins of the disease, an outbreak of coronavirus to begin in mid-September in another city.
Coronavirus in Wuhan
, geneticist Peter Forster of Cambridge University headed a research project to study the historical processes that led to the pandemic CоVID-19. In the end, he and his team hope to identify «patient zero» – first person who got infected with the novel coronavirus. To date, they managed to schedule propagation of SARS-CoV-2, parallel tracking genetic mutations that occur as you travel from China to Australia, Europe and the rest of the world.
Experts conducted a network analysis using more than 1000 genomes of coronaviruses. The analysis includes the date of infection and the patient «type» virus who had been infected by the man – there are three types - A, b and C. Closest to the new coronavirus, the natural host of which are bats, was option a, which is considered the original genome of the virus of man. The same type was discovered by Chinese and American citizens, as well as patients from Australia and the USA already mutated variant.
However, in most cases, the type of virus And has not been in Wuhan – the epicentre of the outbreak. Instead, the majority of Chinese citizens was discovered type B. In turn, the type, «daughter» type b, was identified during the first instances in Europe and also in South Korea, Singapore and Hong Kong, but apparently is absent in mainland China.
Virus breaks into the cells of the human body by means of thorns (the crown)
According to data collected by Forster and his colleagues, data, flash coronavirus began in the period from 13 September to 7 December. This period assumes a constant frequency of mutations, which is unlikely, and therefore the time estimate can be erroneous. However, it is a best guess at the moment, as scientists await the results of further analysis of samples obtained from patients during 2019. Moreover, according to the researchers, it is possible that the outbreak occurred not far from Wuhan, seven of the 11 identified cases were type A. the Work was published .
Recall that the first recorded case of coronavirus have been registered, 17 Nov 2019. According to the newspaper South China Morning Post, government data show that 55-year-old resident of Hubei province, whose capital is Wuhan, was the first person infected CоVID-19. Today it is believed that the virus at some time jumped to humans from an animal – probably from a bat. Also, scientists do not exclude the presence of intermediate host of the coronavirus.
Doctors in the midst of the epidemic in the Chinese city of Wuhan
However, when and where infection occurred is unknown. In December, the first identified cases were associated with the seafood market in Wuhan, which was the basis of the assumptions of the birth of the virus. But as we learn more about the virus, this version of events seems less likely. Thus, the results of a study published in the Lancet, showed that some of the first infected with the novel coronavirus have not been on the market. Let me remind you that the appearance of the first cases at the end of last year, today infected CоVID-19 more than two million people. the virus has spread to 185 countries and regions. The number of deaths exceeded 150 thousand people.
Scientists are searching for «patient zero» to a pandemic will not happen again. Understanding the different types of viruses and the role they play in disseminating CоVID-19, is «one of the urgent issues that need to be addressed urgently – the study authors write.
Preparations for disinfection, Wuhan
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