In the future the world expects a decline in the birth rate. What does it mean for mankind?

In the future the children may face a lack of peers

I'm Sure deep down each of us thinks about the future of humanity. And in a global sense, considering a variety of options, including scenarios like in the movies «Cowboys and aliens» or «day after tomorrow», for example. Well, I wonder the same. However, carried away by fantasies, we often forget to remove the VR goggles and look at the real world (and should be). Climate change, pandemics, coronaviruses, social instability, the trend towards increasing authoritarianism and, it would seem, how did not expect, a sharp decline in fertility all over the world. According to the results of a new study published in the Lancet, almost all the US population will be reduced, and in some countries by the end of the century will be reduced by half because women are having fewer children.

what not to say?

As they say in their paper, the researchers, this trend may lead to a demographic time bomb, when young people is in short supply and the number elderly people continues to increase, having a negative impact on the economy. But don't ahead of time to shout «Oh my God, we're all going to die». It is expected that Nigeria will be confronted with the opposite trend towards the year 2100 will be the second populous country in the world. And that's what also influenced family planning, some women postpone pregnancy, while others do not exclude the possibility of an unwanted pregnancy because of lack of access to birth control.

In the next 80 years the population of almost all countries of the world will be reduced, and the population of some of the largest States will be reduced by half, predicts a new study published in the journal The Lancet. The reason for the reduction is the fact that women worldwide are having fewer children. I recall that in 1950 the average one woman had 4.7 children, and by 2017 this figure is $ 2.4. According to the forecast of authors of scientific work, by 2100 falls below a 1.7. And when women born less than 2.1 children each, the population is generally decreasing.

the Number of children in the world, one woman is rapidly declining

In fact, researchers from the Institute of metrics and evaluation of the health of the University of Washington predicted that world population would peak in 2064 year at 9.7 billion and will fall to 8.8 billion by the end of the century. Thus, it will not.

Combined with the aging of the population the result may be a «demographic time bomb», or when not enough young people to support the economy and the older generation.

This study provides the governments of all countries the opportunity to begin rethinking its policy in the field of migration, workforce and economic development to address challenges associated with demographic changes — said in a press release IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray, who led the study.

the Future of developed countries

Projections based on survey data the global burden of disease 2017, assuming that 23 countries, including Japan and Italy, will reduce its population by half to the end of the century. China closer to becoming the country with the largest population, it will overtake India. Other countries, mainly Nigeria, faced with an opposite tendency: the study expects that the country will increase to 791 million people by 2100 and become the second populous country.

By the end of the century the world will be multipolar, with India, Nigeria, China and the U.S. are dominant powers, and the influence of Europe and Asia weakens, — said in a press release the chief editor of the Lancet Dr. Richard Horton. — It really is a new world to which we must prepare now.

Nigeria, on the contrary, waiting for the boom.

Why women have fewer children?

The United States, in particular, reported a steady decline in the birth rate for decades, and in 2019 was recorded the lowest number of births over the last 35 years. The reasons for this are diverse, but experts say that the ongoing «baby bust» appears to be mainly associated with changes in attitudes to parenthood, which leads to the fact that more and more people and have fewer children when they start, if they do have children. Teen pregnancy and birth rate also decreased significantly in recent years.

Despite the signs of progress in many respects, the General trend has long been concerned about some experts that say the USA can suffer from the demographic time bomb, which in extreme cases can lead to the final extinction of the population. A new report suggests that these concerns can be extrapolated worldwide.

I think that is incredibly difficult to think about it and acknowledge what a big thing; it's extraordinary, we have to reorganize society — said Murray of Bi-bi-si.

He and his colleagues encourage liberal immigration policy and warned against responding to recessions so that would include «freedom and women's reproductive rights», says a press release.

Pregnant woman waiting in line for food with hundreds of other people in the outbreak of coronavirus COVID-19, in the Church of St. Mary's Waltham, Massachusetts.

Coronavirus and family planning

Although the report is based on data collected before the pandemic, it also has impact on family planning around the world.

Many people who need medical help to get pregnant, we had to postpone the treatment of infertility. Other couples refrain from natural conception, because it is unknown how the virus . On the other hand, the coronavirus makes it difficult to access birth control and abortion, especially among disadvantaged communities and developing countries.

In one of the UN reports, it was predicted that for every 6 months of disruption in health services in low and middle income 47 million women will lose access to contraceptives, and 7 million pregnant unintentionally.

maternal and child mortality rates also may increase. We can't afford to watch for the next 10 years as the decade of the «collection of fragments» and restore confidence in the ability of health systems to provide essential services to women and children — said Mary Ann Etiebet, Executive Director of Merck for Mothers, during a special briefing by the who.

But I think it depends not only on us.