Artificial intelligence: what we promise and what we risk

At the beginning of this year, 116 luminaries from the world of technology have signed an open letter calling for the UN to prevent "lethal Autonomous weapons systems". They believe that this can lead to armed conflict of unprecedented proportions. The Independent noted that "for the first time experts on artificial intelligence and robotic companies took a joint decision on this issue".

But not all observers are so concerned about. Andrew ng, until recently, worked as the chief scientist at Baidu, came to the conclusion that worrying about killer robots is like to worry about overcrowding on Mars, and we will have enough time to realize it.

In the early years of the 21st century few subjects have aroused more interest or debate more vigorously than artificial intelligence, starting from the understanding of the term. This March, one observer noted that "there are approximately as many definitions of AI, and how many scientists who are developing this technology." Robbie whiting, founder, Junior, States, "AI — and this is not merely a word it could change the world".

Although exaggeration indeed, AI is already rebuilds the whole range of activities, such as transport, Finance and healthcare. Chief technology officer of Facebook, believes that AI "can solve the problem, the extent of which cover the entire planet." Elon Musk, meanwhile, argues that "AI represents a fundamental risk to the existence of human civilization." Most of the technologies are neither helpful nor harmful, the important thing is who uses them and why.

Few people do not agree that AI is developing much faster than we are trying to understand its complex nature, many aspects and far-reaching consequences for national security. A recent report by Gregory Allen and Daniela Chan, graduate of Harvard University, there is a call for the government to create something like the RAND Corporation for the AI.

Researchers at RAND, in turn, subscribe to the words of the Harvard team.

They propose to consider four areas in which the influence of the AI can be significant, but uncertain.

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Jobs

Kai-Fu Lee, Chairman SinovationVentures, believes that AI is "aimed at large-scale job cuts", while concentrating wealth in the hands of companies that develop or accept AI. Others believe that such fears were present during the emergence of all world-changing technologies until the printing press in the 15th century.

The Economist urges readers that "AI creates a demand for jobs", and the growing number of people around the world "provides digital services in the Internet". Which companies and countries will thrive in the age of AI? Which segments will disappear, changes will be created? How to change the nature of the work?

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Military

A Supporter of armed drones argue that such weapons can hit targets with much higher precision than humans; and the larger the role they play in the theater of military operations, the less equipment will use them to harm.

But what if such weapons become independent and will work on their own, without human intervention? Would not remove people from the list of military personnel to more severe and uncontrollable arms race?

An open letter published at the International joint conference on artificial intelligence in 2015, warned that Autonomous weapons "does not require expensive or inaccessible raw materials, therefore, will become ubiquitous and cheap for all significant military forces for mass production." Will the era with automatic weapons more peaceful or more warlike?

Researchers at RAND are calling for the analytical structure and international efforts devoted to the use of armed drones, high-range in the fight against terrorism and targeted killings.

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decision Making

Politicians are constantly faced with a huge number of choices and motives in the days of social networking, a lot of them more than twenty years ago. This information overload does not allow to cope with the situation during the crisis, not to mention the multiple crises.

Recently there was a proposal to pass "all decisions taken by the President, through the computer — not to make a final choice, and to help the leader in the face of a man."

But at least now the AI for the most part, sinless, the RAND study emphasizes the risk of bias in algorithmic filtering of the news, the impact on criminal justice and even the provision of social security benefits and the issuing of visas. Which decisions should be assigned to the AI? What should remain in the hands of man? In the hands of a team of people?

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Creativity

The World has become accustomed to the AI that can make computing exciting exploits and defeat the people in popular Board games (a little over 20 years since then, as the IBMDeepBlue supercomputer famously defeated chess grandmaster Garry Kasparov). He will continue to progress in the creative space of people?

Researcher of artificial intelligence Jesse Engel believes that he "will transform the creative process… adding to its smart instruments provide new opportunities of expression." Others are not so optimistic. Journalist Adrienne Lefranc notes that AI can "flirt", "to write novels" and "to forge famous paintings with remarkable accuracy". What does it mean to be creative? Moreover, what does it mean to be human?

Discussions of AI often reduced to extremes, whether it's the promise of utopia, free from human suffering, or danger of dystopia when robots will enslave their human creators. A more balanced and thorough analysis that will help shape policies to mitigate risks and maximize benefits. You must take certain steps to overcome the fears on the fact that the AI to work state and society.

How AI may affect the national interests of the country? What types of AI, if any, can be considered the strategic technologies with respect to state criteria? Where must play to market forces, and where politics? Although AI remains largely the stuff of science fiction, these questions become all the more important.

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