A New study suggests that the greatest danger in case of falling of an asteroid to Earth will be to present not the fact of his collision with the surface. The greatest danger for all of us to imagine the shockwaves that the asteroid would create when entering the atmosphere.
The Results of a study accepted for publication in the scientific journal "Meteoritics and Planetary Science", indicate that most deaths from a sufficiently large asteroid will be caused by blast wave when it enters the atmosphere. Regardless of whether it will be destroyed while still in the air, or directly falls to the surface as a whole. I do not know if this news is to reduce the degree of tension, but to create the most catastrophic effect of the asteroid will need to enter the atmosphere near a densely populated urban area. The good news is that the large asteroids fall on the Ground very, very rare.
If you take the average asteroid, its orbital speed around the Sun is about 108 000 km/h (or about 30 km/s).
"At that speed when entering the earth's atmosphere will create a tremendous amount of energy. This will release a very powerful shock waves," — says the study's lead author Clemens Ramp from the University of Southampton.
"This event will be accompanied by the emergence of very powerful tornadoalley winds down to the surface after an asteroid, and the fall of many smaller fragments created by this space object".
In some cases it can completely disintegrate in the planet's atmosphere, but if an asteroid can maintain its integrity, it will eventually fall to the surface, forming an impact crater and scattered for several kilometers around their debris mixed with soil and other debris. Of course, one of the results of this event will be the beginning of a powerful earthquake. Definitely, this will be the best day in the history of the planet and especially for those unfortunate souls who are not lucky enough to live close to the crash site.
To estimate the amount of mortality due to asteroid threat Ramp considered three possible scenario: given the impact caused by the asteroid, at which the object will burn up in the atmosphere before falling to the surface; taking into account the place of his fall to the Ground; and taking into account his dip in the ocean and then the resulting tsunami.
Diagram shows the various options for the development of scenarios and their consequences
In their study, Ramp a schematic image depicted on the various options of entry and the fall of the asteroid and as an example, examine two of them in more detail. In the first case, he suggested that can happen if the Atlantic ocean 130 kilometers from the coastline of Rio de Janeiro will fall by an asteroid of size 200 meters. Such an event, according to Ramfa will cause approximately 50 000 deaths. His estimates say that 75 percent of these deaths will be caused by the appeared after the fall of the asteroid a powerful tsunami. The remaining 25 percent are likely to die under the influence of powerful shock waves from air blast.
Earlier studies of possible consequences was also informed about the catastrophic effects of the tsunami, but the research Ramp an important role to the continental shelves, which will be a kind of buffer that dissipates the power of a major tsunami near the hills and along the sloping banks.
In the second scenario Ramp considered a variant in which the fall of the asteroid will occur in London and Berlin. In two cases, the celebrants are two different size of the asteroid is 50 metres and 200 metres respectively, — and also considers two levels of impact: only in the presence of air blast shock waves or air blast with the fall of the object. Results you can see in the chart below. Bold black numerals allocated in advance the number of casualties.
As you can see, in this case it will be possible to speak about millions of deaths. The majority of these victims (approximately 85 percent) are caused by the waves of the air blast, even if the asteroid will fall to the ground, adding to the list another few hundred thousand dead. About 15 percent of the population will be killed by the heat generated by the shock wave. And the remaining number of victims is due to sharp pressure wave, by earthquakes, by the falling object and debris of the asteroid.
The Outlook is not pleasant, admittedly. It should always be remembered that such events (the fall of large asteroids) occur, according to the calculations of scientists of the same, approximately every 400,000 years. Now the only excuse, which at least is able to reduce the degree of concern is the fact that most of the surface of the planet remains uninhabited, so the probability of falling of an asteroid over the city is relatively low. And yet, maybe it really should support scientists in their idea to bring down dangerous objects nuclear warheads still in their access to Land?
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