The rise of BTC is ahead of the rate of price rise of cryptocurrencies. What does it mean?


2019-03-19 14:45:08




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The growth of the user base over the last eight weeks is considerably larger than the increase in the price of the cryptocurrency. Usually these two indicators move in unison, but now between trends in the values there is a serious divergence.

For example, the average value of the active addresses on blockchain BTC for 30 days increased from 569 812 in January to 664 064 in March — increase by about 17 percent. During this same time, the 30 SMA on the 1-day chart of Bitcoin has risen just 1 percent.


global change of the trend

As we can see, the difference in the movement of average values of active addresses and Bitcoin prices has been particularly noticeable in recent times. It's weird, because most of the 2018 values rose and fell at the same time.

Source: CoinDesk

However, the number of active addresses may not be such a reliable metric to determine market trends. For example, the indicator grew almost all the time with 2014 and 2016, when the stock market situation kept the bears. A more complete picture can provide the transaction volumes and their ratio to the number of active addresses.

Source: CoinDesk

It Turns out that the volumes sent money via Bitcoin are strongly linked with its price. The trend of the average values over the last 30 days follows the 30 moving average SMA on the 1-day chart of Bitcoin. Finally, the ratio of the number of active addresses (TAAR) is the most accurate metric of market behavior.

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Source: CoinDesk

Unfortunately, TAAR is still in the downtrend. The recent spurts of prices of the main cryptocurrency has not had a major impact on the behavior of users BTC. And we recommend to refrain from opening long positions, as the likelihood of draining of Bitcoin up to $ 3,500 is still present.

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