The Americans (in the person of the President, of course) want to stop funding the International space station by 2025. Our them, of course, support. Does this mean that both countries will stop sending people to orbit the Earth? Of course not. On the contrary, NASA plans to give the Agency low earth orbit where the space station, commercial space industry over the next seven years. That will need private space companies to take control of this region of space? How will they do that?
Option may be that one or more companies will take full control of the International space station (ISS). But the orbiting laboratory — a very expensive toy. NASA is spending 3-4 billion dollars annually, keeping the station afloat, and the money is unlikely to be able to afford to spend regular company. To ensure full functionality of the ISS needs a lot of astronauts and controllers who work shifts, and the private sector may simply not have the staff or resource.
A More likely scenario would be that a commercial company can at some point rely on a small private space station in low earth orbit. Such devices will be smaller, cheaper and less complex than the ISS, but they will provide constant access to critical space areas. Low earth orbit — the perfect testing ground for technologies needed for missions to the moon and Mars. With private stations, NASA can buy time and space on these modules, continuing to test in microgravity. Private space station can also be used to create completely new types of earnings, e.g. for space production of satellites or platforms for tourists.
The Main question remains whether the commercial space industry is ready to seize the initiative by 2025. Several companies are working on habitats and technologies that is definitely useful, but none of them has yet to be demonstrated separate and ready private station. And if the ISS fails sooner than interfering with commercial companies, the US will remain without access to low-earth orbit.
"You're not going to sell the house, collect your bags and head to God knows where," says Robert Bigelow, the founder and CEO of Bigelow Aerospace, involved in the creation of a space of the housing. "The idea that the government will abandon the station and he will be nowhere else to dwell, insane."
The U.S. government is at least thinking about this issue. This week NASA has allocated $ 150 million to help the transfer of the ISS to the private sector. In fact, over the next five years will be allocated a total of $ 900 million to this translation was carried out. But NASA has a roadmap to use the money. "In simple words, you need a plan — a confident transition plan is not written overnight," says Eric Stallmer, President of the Commercial Spaceflight Federation. "And the discussion about this transition plan should begin immediately."
Not quite clear what will be the final goal of the ISS. Not so long ago at the disposal of The Washington Post was an internal document, NASA offers companies "to continue to manage certain elements or capabilities of the ISS in the framework of the future commercial platform." So maybe the industry will take control not of the whole ISS, and above its parts — may be divided into modules. However, this may not be possible. Some of the station modules do not have limbs and can't move around the space independently. Plus the ISS was designed as a complete system, so parsing it apart will be a challenge.
Most experts agree that it is unlikely that the share of NASA on the ISS can be fully privatized. "To catch her completely — it's not really a common thing," says Bigelow. Perhaps his word will insert international partners of the U.S., the European space Agency and Roscosmos. But NASA covers most of the costs of the plant. In 2013 it was known that NASA has invested about 87 billion dollars in the ISS since 1993 (Russia and Europe have invested less). But since then, the international community increased its presence in this chart.
This is why a separate space station may be the answer — and many companies are working hard to ensure that this goal is realized. One of the main examples is Bigelow Aerospace, which specializiruetsya on inflatable space habitats. Bigelow has already demonstrated that its technology works in space: one of the dwellings of company — BEAM — successfully attached to the ISS in 2016. The company also plans to start the habitat of the next generation, B330, in 2020 or 2021. Meanwhile tightened and other companies.
Critical point is that these companies have to show, is the fact that their transport needs to work by itself. This means that the modules will require a constant power source for the station, life support systems that keep people alive; own engines which will be able to keep the station in orbit, so that it fell to the Ground. Perhaps 150 million dollars allocated to NASA, you can invest in these space of the home, to accelerate their development.
If all goes well, NASA will want to access these private stations. The ISS was a critical tool in testing new materials in microgravity. It also was convenient to learn about how the human body adapts to living in space — this kind of information desperately needed by NASA before the Agency send people on a long journey to the moon or Mars. In the end, NASA can lease part of these stations for its own astronauts. And so the Agency can continue to buy cargo and manned flights by private companies such as SpaceX and Boeing.
"All proceeds from NASA in the role of owner and Manager in the private sector as owner and Manager," said Jim Munsey, the founder of space consulting Agency.
All this attracts the commercial segment especially for one reason: money. NanoRacks plans to create a platform designed to build satellites in space. Now satellites are usually built on the ground and then withdrawn as gently into orbit. But in the future the satellite parts could be sent to the station where people or robots will assemble their parts into a functioning machine, which then will be deployed in orbit. In this sense, the satellites can be run as needed, without waiting for flying weather.
"You can bring more raw materials for further production instead of just to assemble the satellites," says Jeff Manber, CEO of NanoRacks. "This is a complex and large ecosystem."
Of Course, there is always the possibility of space tourism. Bigelow plans to turn their habitat into hotels. "It would be cool to be in a soft bedroom, with a constant view of the Earth. Would be worth it?", says Mansi. "It is the market, not the government to decide how to disclose, the case of the private sector".
To make this dream of a privatized low-earth orbit a reality, businesses need to be ready by 2025. And always many unknown variables. The idea is to stop direct funding of the ISS is most often confronted with harsh criticism. Perhaps the ISS will continue to operate in the old pace and during the 2020-ies.
But one day she will have to delegate — even in 2025, even in 2035. The lab will exist in its normal form until 2028, but after that, many station components approach the end of life. Don't forget that a part of the ISS was built in 80-ies and 90-ies. It is therefore important to denote the devolution plan, the new operators of low earth orbit, regardless of the date of completion of the ISS.
Without a plan NASA might be in the same situation as with the boosters now. When in 2011 was cancelled the Shuttle program, the Agency called on the private sector to develop spacecraft, which will replace the space shuttles and send astronauts to the station and back. But already in 2018, and neither SpaceX nor Boeing is not ready to send people to the ISS, so NASA is forced to rely on Russia to launch astronauts into Leo.
"ISS death," says Manber. "She will die. The only question is, when will this happen and what are we going to do about it".
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