In 1997 at age 122 years Jeanne calment died. She was the longest-lived person in the history of mankind (at least, among those whose deaths have been documented). But after it there will be others. According to a new study, published in Science, people are not even close to maximum life expectancy — if such a limit exists. Analyzing the mortality rate among the 4000 Italian centenarians aged 105 and above, the researchers found that the risk of death which increases with time throughout human life suddenly decreases at very old. If you live to 105 years old, your chance of dying in a particular year will be 50/50.
If this is proven among other populations, alignment and mortality "mortality plateau" — will have huge consequences.
"If there is a plateau of mortality, the limit of human longevity there," says Dr. Jean-Marie Robin, a demographer from the French Institute of health and medical research, was not involved in the study.
Although scholars have long agreed that the risk of death steadily increases with age to 80 years of age, what happens next is the subject of fierce dispute between the two camps.
The First group believes that the duration of human life there is a limit. In 2016, Dr. Jan Wij from the Medical College of Alberta Einstein in new York began a heated debate, that human life depends on biological ceiling of approximately 115 years. In their study, the team turned to two international databases on life expectancy to determine the likelihood that an elderly person may die in a particular year.
The Results seemed clear: although the maximum human lifespan increased by about five years to 115 between 70 and 90 mi-mi years, the trend stopped in 1995. Despite innovations in medicine, such as sanitation, antibiotics, vaccines, surgical methods, people just can't die later. Although centenarians-Champions, like Kalman definitely meet team Vijay came to the conclusion that the likelihood of a person to live to 125 years is 1 in 10,000.
The Results make sense. All animals have a natural life expectancy of dogs, for example, will never live the same as people, regardless of nutrition, exercise, or other Wellness treatments. Biology also requires a hard limit. With the aging of our DNA and proteins accumulate damage, turning the body of the reconciled molecular mechanism in the scrap pile.
Even if age-related diseases didn't kill you, at some point the body just goes into denial. Sverhdorogie, in particular, did not die from disease — Kalman, for example, died for an unknown reason — but still continue to die.
"Too many functions of the body fails", explained Wij at the time. "The body cannot live."
But early to despair. Vijay the research sparked fierce debates among scientists almost as soon as hit the Internet. Some have argued that his statistical methods were incorrect. Others said that the findings are not based on sufficient data. A few months after the original publication Vijaya, five teams spoke with the official criticism in a number of papers published in Nature.
"There is an alternative explanation," says Dr. Maarten Pieter rozing from the Center for healthy aging University of Copenhagen, which at that time was a co-author of one of the denials. "The maximum age just increases over time, and what we see as a decline in life expectancy, in fact, is a false conclusion based on visual research and statistics, which consider impossible."
A New study breaks into this firestorm with a larger and improved data set.
Human demographers are faced with two main problems, studying life expectancy. First, not many people live to a ripe old age to gather enough statistics. Second, people tend to forget his age and self-reports can be affected.
"In this age becomes a problem to prove that age is real," explains Dr. Elisabetta barbi from the University of Rome.
To guarantee the quality of their dataset, Barbie and her colleagues used a valuable resource: write every Italian aged 105 years and older in the period from 2009 to 2015. These persons were certificates of birth and death that has allowed scientists to confirm the exact age of each, avoiding the problem of "exaggeration age." Each of those who were alive at the time of the study, the researchers made a survival certificate.
This data set also allowed the team to track each person within a few years, and not group them by age intervals, a practice adopted in the previous studies that use the combined datasets. Tracking of individual trajectories of survival is the most important part of demography, especially in a relatively large sample of 4,000 people, approximately 450 of whom are men.
"I think it's the best information we could receive," said study author Kenneth Wachter.
The Results showed that the death rate soars to 70-80 years, and that women live longer.But, unlike previous datasets, these Italian superdigital definitely showed that the risk of dying is aligned to the plateau to the age of 105 years. Scientists also found that people born relatively late in the sample, have a lower mortality rate at the age of 105 years. Consequently, over time, the plateau is reduced.
"If at the age of 105 years, the chances of survival are getting better, we don't hit any hard limit," said the Watchman. Consequently, life expectancy is increasing.
"the Results are very interesting and surprising," says Dr. Siegfried Hekimi, a biologist from McGill University in Montreal. Hakimi co-wrote one of the critical works in 2017 in response to the study Vijaya. Now this study provides the best evidence that mortality is reduced in a state of extreme old age.
The New study was not without critics. Dr. Brandon Milholland who participated in determining the 115-year limit, said that the new study was too limited and observed only a small fraction of the human population in the same geographic area. It remains to determine whether these results to the rest of mankind.the
The New study does not give answers to this question, but the authors have some ideas. One of them is natural selection. Some people may have genes that make them more vulnerable to disease than others. Such people can die long before you reach the age of 105 years and will retain the majority of the elderly.
Another option — perhaps more interesting — is that at some point repair mechanisms of the body compensate for the damage. Sverhdorogimi can just enjoy the slow life at the molecular level, their cells do not divide as often and may have a lower metabolic rate, which leads to less damage.
We see this with the example of cancer, explains study author James Vopal. "Cancer is a fairly common cause of death in 70, 80 or 90 years. But very few die of cancer over 100 years."
"the existence of this plateau indicates that something is in control of the bad outcome in a big age," said the Watchman. We do not yet know which genetic effects are responsible for this braking phenomenon, but they certainly manifest at a young age, and their detection may be important for understanding the aging and eventual recovery.
The New study is unlikely to resolve an age dispute, but if the findings are proved by using a larger dataset, this will open up an incredible opportunity of anti-aging. Many experts believe that very old people are not responding to medical treatment. But if the probability of death increases with age at a certain point, then intervention with a drug or calorie restriction can help the oldest.
In Other words, we can prevent death. Perhaps at any age.
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